THE
TRANSATLANTIC
ECONOMY 2026
Annual Survey of Jobs,
Trade and Investment between
the United States and Europe
Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan
Introduction
The transatlantic economy – worth $9.8 trillion – is the world’s largest and most consequential economic relationship. Although it faces stormy seas in 2026, it does so with strong momentum following a year marked by all-time highs across a range of indicators.
Inevitable transatlantic differences should not distract us from the fact that Europe and the United States share the most mutually beneficial relationship on the planet.
The transatlantic economy faces stormy seas in 2026, as countries and companies navigate geopolitical tensions, shifting global supply chains, disruptive trade policies, realigning currency movements, rising energy costs, and the transformative effects of AI. Yet, even in this context, transatlantic business continues to thrive. Every day, more than $6.4 billion worth of goods and services are traded between Europe and the United States, of which $4.5 billion (70%) is between the EU and the US, underpinned by extensive cross-border investments that support millions of jobs.
2025 was a turbulent year for the transatlantic economy. While a deal at the end of July averted a full‑blown EU-US trade war, the average effective US tariff rate on EU goods increased to 16-18% – a fivefold increase compared to the year before. Despite this turbulence, goods trade flows held strong, services trade quietly continued to grow, and Europe and the United States remained each other’s most important source of overseas affiliate income by far.
Economic growth on both sides of the pond is expected to be cyclically robust in 2026, thought the pace will vary. Analysts predict economic growth of 2.5% in the United States and around 1.2% in Europe, with significant variation across countries. In the United States, the massive AI infrastructure buildout and an affordability squeeze are key watchpoints; in Europe, higher energy prices, longstanding barriers inside the Single Market, and vulnerability to China’s export onslaught add to the uncertainty.
The bottom line is unchanged: the transatlantic economy is the world’s largest and most consequential economic relationship. Transatlantic commerce continues to thrive, and this dense web of deep connections remains a strength – not a burden – in a more competitive and disruptive age.
Every day, more than $6.4 billion worth of goods and services are traded between Europe and the United States
1. Trade in goods
Europe and the United States share one of the world’s largest merchandise trade partnerships – an everyday flow of goods that binds supply chains and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic.
Key figures:
- US goods exports to Europe: $617 billion (2025)
- European goods exports to the United States: $840 billion (2025)
- US goods exports to the EU: $414 billion (2025)
- EU goods exports to the United States: $633 billion (2025)
2. Trade in services
The United States and the European Union are the two largest traders of services in the world and each other’s most important services trading partners.
Key figures:
- US services exports to Europe: $489 billion (2024)
- European services exports to the United States: $350 billion (2024)
- US services exports to the EU: $294 billion (2024)
- EU services exports to the United States: $206 billion (2024)
3. Investment
Trade alone fails to paint a full picture of transatlantic commerce; investment is the real backbone of the transatlantic economy. Europe remains by far the primary destination for US investment abroad, and European firms remain the largest source of foreign direct investment in the United States.
Key figures:
- Europe’s share of US FDI worldwide: 56% (2009 – 2025)
- Europe’s share of all global FDI in the United States: 64% (2024)
4. Trade and investment synergies
Deep US and European investment ties in each other’s market are another conduit for trade. A great deal of transatlantic trade is intra-firm (related-party) trade that stays within the same company, showing how deeply US and European supply chains are embedded in each other’s markets.
Key figures:
- Share of US imports from the EU+UK consisting of intra-firm trade: 65% (2024)
- Share of US exports to the EU+UK consisting of intra-firm trade: 40% (2024)
5. Foreign affiliates: gross product and assets
US companies in Europe and European companies in the United States are among the largest and most advanced economic forces in the world. Their gross product shows the value they add inside each other’s economies, while their assets show the scale of each side’s footprint.
Key figures:
- Gross product (output) of European company affiliates in the United States: $900 billion (est. 2024)
- Gross product (output) of US company affiliates in Europe: $835 billion (est. 2024)
- US foreign assets in Europe: $19.5 trillion (est. 2024)
- European foreign assets in the United States: $9.4 trillion (est. 2024)
6. Foreign affiliates: sales and income
US and European companies each make more of their overseas income in each other’s markets than they do in the entire rest of the world. Foreign affiliate sales – not exports – are the primary way US firms serve European customers and European firms serve American customers.
Key figures:
- US affiliate sales in Europe: $3.9 trillion (est. 2024)
- European affiliate sales in the United States: $3.5 trillion (est. 2024)
- Europe’s share of US foreign affiliate earnings worldwide: 54% (2023)
- European companies’ share of all foreign affiliate earnings in the United States: 63% (2023)
7. Jobs
Millions of people on both sides of the Atlantic owe their livelihoods to a healthy transatlantic economy. European firms are the leading foreign source of jobs in the United States, and US companies are the leading foreign source of jobs in Europe.
Key figures:
- Direct and indirect jobs dependent on transatlantic commerce: 16 million (est. 2024)
- Employees of European companies in the US: 5.3 million (direct jobs due to investment, est. 2024)
- Employees of US companies in Europe: 4.6 million (direct jobs due to investment, est. 2024)
8. Innovation
International flows of R&D and human talent are now critical to knowledge economies, and the tightest innovation links run across the Atlantic as firms share development costs, spread risks, and tap each other’s intellectual capital.
Key figures:
- R&D spending by European affiliates in the US: $61.2 billion (2023)
- R&D spending by US affiliates in Europe: $43.1 billion (2023)
9. Digital commerce and connectivity
The transatlantic digital economy is uniquely dense, sustained by digital trade, investment, and connectivity that make the EU and the US each other’s closest digital partners.
Key figures:
- US exports of digitally deliverable services to Europe: $361 billion (2024)
- European exports of digitally deliverable services to the United States: $202 billion (2024)
- Information services supplied in Europe by US companies: $422 billion (2023)
- Information services supplied in the US by European companies: $148 billion (2023)
10. Energy
The US is now a cornerstone supplier for Europe’s energy security, while Europe has become America’s most important export market for key fuels. At the same time, European companies are the largest foreign investors in the US energy economy, supporting American jobs and exports alongside the surge in transatlantic energy flows.
Key figures:
- Share of EU LNG supplied by the United States: 60%
- European companies’ share of all FDI in greenfield US energy projects: >50% (2015 – 2024)
In a transatlantic climate marked by trade tensions and questions about the strength of the security partnership, a growing chorus of voices argues that the other side of the Atlantic has become more problem than solution. Some Americans talk as if the United States has little need for Europe; some Europeans say it is time to ‘de-risk’ and become ‘autonomous’ from America.
In fact, there is substantial evidence that Europe and the United States each gain considerably from a flourishing transatlantic economy. Some Europeans are right to want to mitigate excessive dependencies, but wrong to think decoupling from America would cost little; some Americans are right to want Europeans to do more on security, but wrong to think they don’t need Europe.
Europe and America are constituent parts of a densely intertwined $9.8 trillion transatlantic economy and members of the most successful alliance in history – each indispensable to the other. European and American companies not only profit from those interconnections; they use the transatlantic economy as a common geoeconomic base to compete in a fractious world.
Inevitable transatlantic differences should not distract us from the fact that Europe and the United States share the most mutually beneficial relationship on the planet.
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AmCham EU speaks for American companies committed to Europe on trade, investment and competitiveness issues. It aims to ensure a growth-orientated business and investment climate in Europe. AmCham EU facilitates the resolution of transatlantic issues that impact business and plays a role in creating better understanding of EU and US positions on business matters. Aggregate US investment in Europe totalled more than €3.5 trillion in 2024, directly supports more than 4.6 million jobs in Europe, and generates billions of euros annually in income, trade and research and development.
This study is supported by AmCham EU and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Additional partners include American Chambers of Commerce in Belgium, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Spain and Sweden. The research was conducted independently by Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan at the Foreign Policy Institute at John Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies and the Transatlantic Leadership Network.