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THE

TRANSATLANTIC
ECONOMY 2025

Annual Survey of Jobs,
Trade and Investment between
the United States and Europe

Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan

Introduction

The transatlantic relationship is the most mutually beneficial on earth. While the $9.5 trillion Europe-US economy faces several hurdles in 2025, from trade disputes to challenges from China, it does so with strong momentum following a year marked by all-time highs.

Even in testing times, the Europe and the US remain each other’s most important markets and geo-economic base.

1. Peril and promise

2025 is a year of peril and promise for the transatlantic economy. Tensions abound, including transatlantic trade disputes, disruptive politics, dramatic energy shifts, supply chain uncertainties, raw materials scrambles, challenges from China, and Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine and other neighbours. Yet the transatlantic economy faces these tests following a remarkably robust year.

Real economic growth is expected on both sides of the Atlantic, yet absolute and per capita growth rates will be uneven. The US expected to expand by 2.7%, while Europe faces a more modest 1% growth rate. Trade tensions along with structural challenges on both sides, from inflationary pressures in the US to regulatory and energy cost burdens in Europe, add to the uncertainty.

However, opportunities for growth remain. The transatlantic economy is not just the world’s largest commercial partnership – it is also its most consequential. If both sides align on key priorities, they can reinforce their leadership in a competitive global economy.

2. The ties that bind the transatlantic economy

The United States and the European Union are key partners when it comes to international trade in goods.

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The United States and the European Union are the two largest traders of services in the world and each other’s most important services trading partners.

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Mutual investment dwarfs trade and is the real backbone of the transatlantic economy

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Deep US and European investment ties in each other’s market are another conduit for trade.

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The total output of US company affiliates in Europe and of European company affiliates in the United States is greater than the total gross domestic product of most countries.

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Foreign affiliate sales – not exports or imports – are the primary means by which US and European firms deliver goods and services to each other’s markets.

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Europe and the US are by far the most important source of onshored jobs in each other’s market.

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The transatlantic innovation ecosystem is growing in importance as the race for future technologies accelerates.

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The transatlantic digital economy – under the sea, on the land, and in the air – is the largest, densest, and busiest in the world.

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The transatlantic energy innovation economy is thriving.

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3. The transatlantic economy and the world

As the world grapples with geopolitical shifts, Europe and the US are reassessing their economic dependencies. The war in Ukraine has prompted unprecedented economic cooperation between the US and Europe, with sanctions on Russia and efforts to secure energy independence reshaping global trade dynamics. At the same time, both economies face critical vulnerabilities in their reliance on China for essential goods, from rare earth materials to pharmaceuticals.

As the US and Europe work to “de-risk” their supply chains and secure strategic industries, they are increasingly turning toward each other – strengthening transatlantic trade, investment and energy flows.

Despite frequent claims that the US and Europe are drifting apart, the data tells a different story. Europe and America maintain economic ties with many global partners, but no relationship is stronger or more deeply integrated than the transatlantic bond.

Transatlantic trade far exceeds US-China or EU-China trade, and transatlantic investment dwarfs that of any other global partnership. As geopolitical uncertainty rises, the transatlantic economy remains the most stable and mutually beneficial commercial relationship in the world.

AmCham EU speaks for American companies committed to Europe on trade, investment and competitiveness issues. It aims to ensure a growth-orientated business and investment climate in Europe. AmCham EU facilitates the resolution of transatlantic issues that impact business and plays a role in creating better understanding of EU and US positions on business matters. Aggregate US investment in Europe totalled more than €3.7 trillion in 2022, directly supports more than 4.9 million jobs in Europe, and generates billions of euros annually in income, trade and research and development.

This study is supported by AmCham EU and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Additional partners include American Chambers of Commerce in Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, Spain and Sweden. The research was conducted independently by Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan at the Foreign Policy Institute at John Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies and the Transatlantic Leadership Network.